I actually track every unexpected expense for a couple years and then look for patterns. It’s not perfect, but it gives me a ballpark.
That’s interesting—tracking by category sounds way more precise than just guessing a percentage. I’ve always wondered, though, how granular do you get? Like, do you separate “major appliances” from “small repairs,” or is that overkill? I tend to lump everything into one big pot, but then when something huge hits, it kind of throws off my whole system. Ever find yourself overcomplicating the buckets and then just ignoring them anyway?
I’ve definitely gone down the rabbit hole of splitting things into way too many categories—at one point I had a separate line for “unexpected vet bills” and “car battery replacement.” Honestly, it got overwhelming fast. Now I just keep it to a handful: home, car, health, and “random.” It’s not perfect, but it keeps me from getting lost in the weeds. When something big hits, yeah, it still messes up the plan, but at least I can see where the pain point is. Sometimes “good enough” really is good enough...
