What makes a construction manager’s schedule forecast credible?

A schedule can look up to date without making it clear whether a milestone is still achievable or has simply been moved. What should an owner expect to see in a useful schedule update?

I’d want to distinguish the original baseline from the current forecast, with changes explained rather than silently absorbed. For permits, long-lead materials, and trade handoffs, which milestones and dependencies are worth tracking closely? And when a date slips, what should the manager include in the recovery plan and in any request for an owner decision?

I’m also curious what kind of slippage should trigger escalation, rather than waiting for the next routine update.